Jobs In Toledo Ohio

Dayton expected to have slow job growth for next decade

The Dayton area could be facing a decade of stagnant job growth, according to a report that predicts local employment won’t return to prerecession levels until after 2021.

Dayton is one of only five top U.S. metro area that aren’t expected to return to peak employment this decade, based on the report released Monday at the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ 79th annual meeting in Baltimore.

In addition to Dayton, the
Cleveland, Toledo and Youngs-town areas in Ohio, and Detroit, Mich., are expected to suffer through a decade of lost jobs, according to the report prepared by IHS Global Insight. Of the 363 metro areas measured, 48 fall into the category, the report said.

“They must have a crystal ball,” said Kathy Trautman of Manpower employment services in Dayton, which tracks the local job market in its quarterly employment outlook survey.

“There are so many factors contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the marketplace. I don’t know how you can project out and say we won’t see any job growth until the next decade.”

Jim Diffley, an IHS economist who worked on the report, said the forecast was based on current
trends, especially the continued decline in manufacturing activity.

In addition, the latest U.S. Census results that show dramatic population losses in Ohio, Michigan and other states.

“Ohio happens not to be looking too well in our forecast, but it’s reflective of long-term conditions in the Midwest where there’s a dependence on manufacturing,” Diffley said. “Another thing that matters a lot is the population flow out of places like Ohio and Michigan. You get a vicious cycle where slow economic activity leads to young people looking for jobs elsewhere, and that further slows economic activity.”

Almost half of the metro areas not expected to fully recover for at least 10 years are concentrated in Ohio, Indiana and other Rust Belt states that rely heavily on manufacturing, which has sustained steep job losses in recent years. The Dayton metro area, which includes Montgomery, Miami, Preble and Greene counties, has lost about 42,000 jobs since reaching peak employment in the first quarter of 2005, according to the survey.

By comparison, the Cincinnati metro area, including Middletown and Warren and Butler counties, has lost 72,000 jobs since reaching peak employment in the first quarter of 2008, soon after the recession began. But the Cincinnati metro area with it’s more diverse economy is expected to recover those jobs as soon as the fourth quarter next year.

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